in a new article in the washington post, the next guest out lines how washington could find a way to mess the whole thing up. let's bring in neil irwin. i have to start by getting your reaction to the news maybe they are in a worse place for a major setback. doesn't sound good. >> it affects what way washington might mess up the recovery. there's a whole menu of options. if the negotiations break down like it's looking like they are, it pushes toward one option. >> this is what you write. the first is obvious, going off the cliff. a timely warning to say the least here. so, what happens to the economy if we go off the cliff? again, some say if we go off the cliff for a little while versus for the whole year or something. >> right. going off for a couple days probably shouldn't make a difference. if it's several weeks, we are talking markets having a negative reaction. businesses not wanting to hire capital expenditures, buying equipment. that could have a negative effect on the economy. if we go off the cliff and stay off the cliff, we are looking at a recession, a sharp one. cbos es